Short answer: Fixed mortgage rates moved up quickly in September because bond yields jumped. If your mortgage renews in the next 4 to 6 months, get a rate held now. It costs nothing, and if rates come back down you still get the lower rate.
By Tim Lacroix, Mortgage Broker. Written September 26, 2026. Rates change daily, so check with us for today’s numbers.
What happened
Two weeks ago, some of our best 5 year fixed options were sitting around 4.1%. This week most 5 year fixed rates are around 4.74% and higher. A few lenders are holding out lower, mostly on insured mortgages, but they could move any day.
That’s not the Bank of Canada. It has held its rate at 2.25% since its last cut, and it held again on September 2. Fixed rates follow the bond market, and the 5 year Government of Canada bond yield climbed about 35 basis points over the month, to around 3.7%. Strong U.S. business data, tough talk from the U.S. Federal Reserve and oil prices swinging on news out of Iran all pushed it up.
Lenders have been changing rates almost daily. On one call this week, a client’s rate went up overnight while we were still comparing options.
What’s next
Nobody knows for sure, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Here’s what we can see:
- The Bank of Canada’s next decision is October 28. By late September, markets had put the odds of a hike at that meeting above 60%.
- A hike would push prime up, which moves variable rates and lines of credit right away.
- Bond yields have been jumpy. They eased a little on September 25. They could drop back or keep climbing on the next headline.
If you renew in the next 6 months
- Get a rate hold now. Most lenders hold for about 120 days, and it costs you nothing. If rates fall, you get the lower rate. If they keep climbing, you’re protected. Right now that’s free insurance.
- Don’t sign your bank’s first offer. Renewal letters usually aren’t the lender’s best rate. A straight switch at renewal has no penalty, and in most cases no stress test.
- Look at the term, not just the rate. If you might sell, move or renovate in the next few years, a shorter term or a variable rate with a 3 month interest penalty could save you more than a slightly lower 5 year fixed.
- Think about a line of credit. If you have equity, adding a home equity line of credit at renewal is often free to set up. It sits at zero until you need it.
If you renew in 1 to 2 years
You don’t need to do anything today. But if your life might change before then (a move, a renovation, a growing family, debt you want to clear), it’s worth knowing what breaking early would cost. Try the penalty estimator on our renewal page, then let’s get your real numbers.
My take
I’m not telling anyone to panic. I am telling my clients who renew this fall to lock in a rate hold this week, because it’s free and it takes the guesswork out. If rates settle back down, we’ll switch you to the lower rate.
Want me to look at yours? Book a quick call or text me at 403-648-1541.
Frequently asked questions
Why did fixed mortgage rates go up in September 2026?
Fixed rates follow Government of Canada bond yields. The 5 year yield rose about 35 basis points over the month, pushed by U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve comments and oil price swings tied to tension with Iran. Lenders raised fixed rates to match.
Should I hold a rate if my mortgage renews in the next few months?
Yes, in most cases. A rate hold costs nothing. Most lenders will hold for about 120 days. If rates fall before you renew, you get the lower rate. If they keep rising, you're protected.
When is the next Bank of Canada rate decision?
October 28, 2026. The policy rate is 2.25%. In late September, markets put the odds of a hike at that meeting at about 64%.
This article is general information, not personal financial advice. Rates, rules and programs change. Talk to a licensed mortgage broker about your situation. Lacroix Mortgage Group is licensed through Mortgage Connection Inc.